The growing adoption of cryptocurrencies is now one of the most powerful forces accelerating the global deployment of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), a new global analysis reveals. The research examines how the use of digital assets, financial inclusion gaps, governance conditions and technological infrastructure influence a country’s position in the global CBDC race.
The study, “Cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies in a global perspective” published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Managementanalyzes the development stages of CBDCs in 109 countries between 2020 and 2024. It uses a combination of panel regressions, ordered logistic models, dynamic GMM estimation, and margin analysis to determine how the cryptocurrency adoption rate (CAR) affects a country’s likelihood of moving from early CBDC research to full-scale launch.
The results show that the adoption of cryptocurrencies has become a decisive global catalyst. The effect is particularly strong in low-income and financially excluded economies, where the rapid use of digital currency is reshaping monetary policy priorities and intensifying central bank efforts to defend payment systems and regulatory control.
How the rise in cryptocurrency adoption is pushing countries towards CBDCs
The study assesses whether the rise of cryptocurrencies significantly influences countries’ transition from CBDC research to more advanced development and deployment. In each estimated empirical model, the authors find a consistent pattern: higher cryptocurrency adoption predicts faster and deeper progress across all stages of CBDC.
The analysis uses global data from the Chainalysis Cryptocurrency Adoption Index to capture the intensity of digital asset usage in each country. When compared to the IMF CBDC track database, a clear relationship emerges. Countries with high CAR levels tend to move away from the first category, without plans or canceled CBDC exploration, and increasingly occupy the development, pilot or launch stages. This trend remains stable even when taking into account macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rate volatility and the quality of governance.
Ordered logistic regression, well matched to the five-level CBDC progression scale, strengthens the conclusion. As the adoption of cryptocurrencies increases, the likelihood of remaining in the early phases of CBDCs sharply decreases. On the other hand, the probability of moving to the pilot or launch stage increases significantly. These results hold even after adjusting for year effects, regional differences, economic size, and institutional strength.
The authors explain this phenomenon using the theory of diffusion of innovation. Cryptocurrencies represent a technological innovation that is rapidly spreading across societies as traditional banking systems struggle to meet public demand. As adoption increases, central banks perceive increased pressure to respond with their own digital currencies to preserve monetary sovereignty, stabilize payment channels, and avoid reliance on unregulated private digital assets.
Institutional theory also supports this interpretation. As crypto activity grows, regulatory legitimacy becomes a growing concern. Countries view CBDCs as instruments to maintain control of the monetary system while providing a state-backed alternative to decentralized private currencies. This institutional motivation is particularly strong where governments do not have strong mechanisms to regulate or monitor the movements of digital capital.
The net effect is clear: cryptocurrencies are no longer simply a parallel financial system, but have become a structural driver of national digital currency innovation.
Why developing economies are growing faster than rich countries
The authors study whether the effect of cryptocurrency adoption differs by income level, financial inclusion rates, and technological readiness. Their results reveal that emerging economies exhibit the strongest and most statistically robust relationship between crypto usage and CBDC development.
In low-income and lower-middle-income countries, CAR has a powerful and positive influence on the acceleration of CBDCs. The association remains significant even after controlling for digital infrastructure and macroeconomic variables. These countries often face limited financial access, weak traditional banking systems and fragmented payment networks. In such environments, cryptocurrencies often fill service gaps by enabling faster and more accessible cross-border transfers, savings options and informal financial activities.
This expanding crypto ecosystem creates both opportunities and risks. On the one hand, it signals the public’s willingness to adopt digital financial tools. On the other hand, it increases pressure on central banks to establish regulatory oversight and provide safer digital alternatives. The study reveals that CBDCs in these regions are designed as tools for financial inclusion, allowing governments to extend formal financial services to populations historically excluded from banking systems.
Upper-middle-income countries also show a strong connection between CAR and CBDCs. Here, crypto markets tend to reflect increasing economic activity, higher internet penetration, and more complex financial needs. Central banks in these economies often seek CBDCs to modernize payment infrastructure, facilitate digital commerce, and reduce reliance on cash.
In high-income economies, the relationship between CAR and the advancement of CBDCs weakens significantly. The authors report minimal statistical significance in this segment. Their interpretation is that rich countries are not developing CBDCs as a defensive response to the adoption of cryptocurrencies, but as a strategic upgrade to long-standing financial systems. In these markets, CBDCs are linked to objectives such as improving the efficiency of cross-border payments, strengthening monetary policy transmission, reducing settlement times, and preserving long-term competitiveness as global payment channels evolve.
The study’s heterogeneity analysis thus reveals a global divide: in developing economies, CBDCs are a reactive and corrective measure; in advanced economies, they constitute proactive instruments to sustain national financial infrastructures.
How macroeconomic conditions, inclusion levels, and technology are shaping CBDC progress
The authors assess a wide range of variables, including inflation, quality of governance, financial inclusion, mobile connectivity, and economic freedom, to determine which conditions best predict the trajectory of a country’s CBDCs.
One of the most influential conditions identified is financial inclusion. Countries with low rates of financial inclusion show the strongest responsiveness to CAR. As more citizens transact with cryptocurrencies due to limited access to banks or mobile money, the urgency for CBDCs increases. This trend highlights a key observation: CBDCs are increasingly seen as digital public infrastructure intended to serve unbanked and underbanked populations.
Technological readiness also plays an important role. Countries with higher mobile connectivity and better digital literacy tend to progress faster through the CBDC development cycle. Nonetheless, the study finds that crypto adoption retains its influence even after accounting for technological infrastructure. This suggests that the move toward CBDCs is not only a function of technical capacity, but also a policy response to structural market pressures created by decentralized digital currencies.
Macroeconomic indicators generate mixed effects. Inflation and interest rates are not consistently associated with the evolution of CBDCs in all models, contradicting the hypothesis that unstable monetary environments directly push governments to adopt CBDCs. Rather, the study reveals that institutional and technological factors matter more than short-term macroeconomic fluctuations.
The quality of governance also shows a complex relationship. In some models, stronger governance correlates with a higher probability of advancing CBDCs, reflecting an ability to manage large digital transformation projects. In other contexts, countries with weaker governance are accelerating CBDC efforts due to their inability to effectively regulate rapidly growing crypto markets. Both pathways illustrate how governance interacts with national priorities, regulatory gaps and market pressures.
To further clarify these relationships, the authors use margin analysis to estimate changes in probability as CAR increases. The probability that a country does not have a CBDC plan decreases sharply, while the probability that it is in the development, pilot or launch phase increases. These trends become more pronounced between 2022 and 2024, suggesting that the global digital currency ecosystem has rapidly matured.
Overall, crypto adoption, financial inclusion, and technological readiness function as reinforcing forces, jointly accelerating the development of CBDCs in many regions around the world.
